Environmental hazard quantification toolkit based on modular numerical simulations

Abstract. Quantifying impacts on the environment and human health is a critical requirement for geological subsurface utilisation projects. In practice, an easily accessible interface operators regulators needed so that risks can be monitored, managed, mitigated. The primary goal of this work was to create environmental hazards quantification toolkit as part risk assessment in-situ coal conversion at two European study areas: Kardia lignite mine in Greece Máza-Váralja hard deposit Hungary, with complex settings. A substantial rock volume extracted during operation, contaminant pool potentially left behind, which may put freshwater aquifers existing infrastructure surface risk. data-driven, predictive tool outlined exemplary paper transport model. Three input parameters were varied previous scenario analysis: hydraulic conductivity, well solute dispersivity retardation coefficient. Numerical models are computationally intensive, number simulations performed analyses limited. presented approach overcomes these limitations by instead using surrogate determine probability severity each hazard. Different surrogates based look-up tables or machine learning algorithms tested their simplicity, goodness fit, efficiency. best performing then used develop interactive dashboard visualising hazard distributions. data coefficients determination R2>0.98, able make predictions quasi-instantaneously. coefficient identified most influential parameter, also visualised dashboard. It showed median values concentrations nearby aquifer five orders magnitude depending whether lower upper range chosen. flexibility update parameter uncertainties significantly increase quality value assessments. principle, newly developed basis similar activities.